A few weeks ago, I awoke to a trade offer in the Remix Dynasty League. This is a new-ish league, one that formed during the throes of Covid-19. A group of industry folks started a dynasty league at that time, as it gave us a meaningful draft to plan for when there were no major sports happening. My team has been mired in obscurity ever since, due to getting my candy you-know-what handed to me by seasoned dynasty league players in the inaugural draft. Doing well against those degenerates was always going to be an uphill battle, but there wasn’t any other baseball happening back then, so here we are. Since 2020, my finishes have been 9th, 14th, 10th, and 5th. Yikes. We call those buy-ins donations.
Last year’s surge by my Valleycats was encouraging, though. Some of it was likely smoke and mirrors (Bryce Elder, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo) but some of it seemed legitimate (Isaac Paredes, JP Crawford, Kyle Bradish, and others). So here I sit in 2024, praying that guys like Bryce Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Parker Meadows, and Sal Frelick continue to grow–while also admitting that my outfield remains a GAPING hole of weakness. This brings us to the trade offer.
The other guy’s Alexander Canario for my Randy Vasquez. A side effect of Vasquez’s offseason trade to San Diego, I assume, as the Friars have a lot of innings from 2023 that need covering (Lugo’s and Wacha’s, oddly enough). Anyway, Vasquez I know already, and I’m entering 2024 with a decent handle on starting pitching. At least, I think I can feel good about it. Gerrit Cole, Kyle Bradish, Bryce Miller, Eduardo Rodriguez, Emmet Sheehan…that’s a core group of guys expected to contribute for very good baseball teams. Some of the veteran holdovers are nice, too. James Paxton landing in L.A., Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha landing in the nice pitching environs of Kansas City…I’m pretty happy about those three. We are chasing quality starts in Remix, not wins, after all. Jordan Hicks, Chris Paddack, Bryce Elder, Jordan Wicks, AJ Puk, Robert Gasser, Ty Madden…between some role changes and returns from injury, and the possibility of Gasser and Madden appearing at some point, I feel fairly decent. In short, Randy Vasquez feels like an arm I can let go of, if it’s for a decent shot at upside.
My starting five in the outfield for this year is bolstered by the likes of Sal Frelick and Parker Meadows, and “anchored” by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Bryan De La Cruz. Gone are Jack Suwinski and Austin Hays, as I gave them willingly this offseason to acquire the services of one Nico Hoerner. So yeah, there’s not a lot of pop here. Speed? Probably. I also have Esteury Ruiz, but he was a liability everywhere other than stolen bases last year. I have Will Benson and Zac Veen waiting in the wings, but there’s just not a lot of MLB-ready talent to get excited about on my squad. Unless you get excited for Seth Brown, JJ Bleday, or Jose Siri. And yeah, Siri could be exciting in some formats (best ball?) but last year’s .267 OBP was absolute torture in our format. Enter Canario…
Canario’s Comp: Adolis or Teoscar?
A cursory Twitter search has Canario comp’d to one Adolis Garcia, so that’s fun. And I checked, and these two guys are the exact same height. So that’s cool. I also really like that Canario can take a walk. He had a breakout 2022 season, and across multiple levels since that time, he’s never posted worse than a double-digit walk rate. Add in the power and the speed, and I’m officially intrigued.
I view MLB skills on a continuum, with those skills all being related to each other. Too much or too little of a particular ingredient, and the whole recipe can fall apart. But at the right intersection of risk and talent, we get the formula for hitters like Adolis Garcia or Teoscar Hernandez, also known as big-time slugging outfielders with plenty of swing-and-miss, with a little speed to burn. But to make it work, you have to hit enough (and hit it hard enough when you do make contact) to not get dumped by your real-life MLB team due to an atrocious batting average. This is the sort of profile that Canario seems to be tracking for, if he can succeed at the big league level.
Canario isn’t as big as those two guys (currently only 165 pounds) but his tall frame will continue to fill out. The long-term projection is that he won’t stick in center field, despite that being the current designation if you scout Canario on Baseball Savant. Fangraphs has Canario listed as DH/OF, for what it’s worth, and that seems pretty fair long-term. And anyway, if the Cubs fans out there had to name a center fielder of the future, it would be Pete Crow-Armstrong, not Canario. But that doesn’t mean Canario can’t have a place. He’s young enough and can run enough that he can cover all three outfield spots. For a Cubs team hoping to contend and on the upswing, I’m pretty interested in Canario for 2024, at least in my deep dynasty (OBP) league.
Canario’s 2022-2023 Seasons
Canario is a 23-year-old, powerful right-handed hitting outfield prospect for the Chicago Cubs, one with enough athleticism to have ripped off 23 steals across three levels in his stellar 2022. He also swatted a whopping 37 homers over that stretch, over a total of 534 plate appearances (125 games). Don’t we all salivate over these power/speed combos? A 37/23 season is pretty epic, and it wasn’t even in a full slate of games. There’s no doubt the 2022 season was a massive leap forward for Canario.
Unfortunately, Canario had offseason ankle and shoulder surgeries due to an injury in the Dominican Winter League, and he missed a large part of the 2023 season as a result. However, he returned last summer to belt eight homers over just 36 games at the Triple-A level. Additionally, the shoulder surgery was on his non-throwing arm, so I think overall that is something we can live with moving forward. Given the healthy 2023 return and the regenerating power of youth, I think we can feel pretty good about Canario’s health prospects heading into 2024. The fact that he ascended from the Arizona Complex League to High-A, to Triple-A, and then to the majors in 2023 is a great sign heading into this season. Especially since the Cubbies–like every other team not named the Dodgers–don’t seem to be doing a ton to improve their offense this offseason.
In Canario, we have an outfielder who could eventually project for 30 homers with double-digit steals if he received the required playing time. The bugaboo will always be the swing-and-miss, but I myself have swung and missed on these types of players before, and Adolis is a great example. If Canario should follow a similar path and hit enough to stick in 2024–either at Triple-A Iowa or in the majors–there are multiple pathways to at-bats for him on this Cubs roster. He’s already a dynamic option off the bench due to his power, the sort of young player you’re happy to give a chance to in certain situations, and hope that he continues to grow. You can almost argue that the best teams need a player like this on the roster to perform, to balance out the large contracts given to superstars. Look at last year’s World Champs and Evan Carter, for example.
2024 Cubs Roster Outlook
The Cubs are currently frontrunners to land Cody Bellinger, which would displace Mike Tauchman in center field. The Halos seem to be a late suitor, though, which would only improve Canario’s outlook if Bellinger would up there. Then the best center field option would become Pete Crow-Armstrong, if it wasn’t the veteran Tauchman. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are entrenched on the corners, but Suzuki has missed significant time in each of his first two seasons, only managing 111 and 138 games. Even if the Cubbies sign Bellinger, there are scenarios where he needs to again cover first base, either when Michael Busch is facing a lefty, or even more if Busch falters entirely.
Christopher Morel is currently penciled into the DH slot, but for a better hitting lineup it makes sense to slot him at third base over Nick Madrigal, and open up DH for some form of Tauchman/Canario or Tauchman/Wisdom platoon. Wisdom can also find at-bats at third base, and Bellinger can also slot in at first base, should the Cubs choose.
There are a lot of moving parts in this lineup, but given that Canario can cover all three outfield spots and find time at DH, I think it’s conceivable that he hits enough this coming season to force his way into the Cubs lineup. Tauchman, Madrigal, Morel, and Busch are not what we would call sure things, and any potential signing of Bellinger only takes up one of those slots.
Overall, I like Canario’s chances at playing time against lefty pitchers, with the upside to crack the lineup more if he’s swinging a hot bat or if someone else is inept or injured.
Adolis and Alexander…
Player: 6’1″, 205, Hit 30/30, Game Power 55/55, Raw Power 60/60, Speed 70/70, Field 55/55, FV 40+
Player: 6’1″, 165, Hit 30/30, Game Power 45/55, Raw Power 60/60, Speed 50/45, Field 45/50, FV 40+
Yes of course, the second player is Alexander Canario. The weight gives it away. But overall, I think the comparison is fair, if you are comfortable projecting growth and the filling out of Canario’s frame. Ultimately, Canario does seem to be tracking for a corner outfield spot. The ding here is that he lacks the speed potential that Adolis offers, but everything else seems to be similar, as far as big-time power potential with a questionable abilty to make contact. Maybe a better fantasy baseball comparison, should Canario hit enough to stick, would be Teoscar Hernandez (big power with less steals). But the ace in the hole for Canario is that he has shown a greater ability to draw a walk than either of these two big-time MLB outfielders. As my format is an OBP one, I think I’m happy to take a chance on this 23-year-old and give my outfield ranks something else to look forward to in the future, be that in 2024 or 2025.
Lastly, on a macro/real life level, I remain interested in the potential of an improving Cubs roster. Canario is one of the hitters I will be monitoring. I just hope he’s either playing every day at Iowa, or getting regular at-bats at the big league level. The Cubs need to find out what they have in this guy, and so does my fantasy baseball team. In short, he’s young, has power, can draw a walk, and has shown good fielding ability.
What say you all? Any diehard Cubs fans out there that want to share some insider information? And are we thinking the Cubbies offense gets a boost with Bellinger? Crystal balls, please. And judge my trade if you like. Should I have retained the services of Randy Vasquez? I don’t want to lose anymore…
rotoranks 