I have been a proud member of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational since its inception. I have experienced the high of winning League 10 in 2018, as well as the low of getting my candy you-know-what handed to me in the now infamous Champions League of 2019. My performances since 2019 have been a mixed bag, but after a solid draft this year, I am back on a good path. Hope springs eternal after every draft, right? I can talk myself into any team being competitive. So let’s do just that this morning.
General Strategy
For those who aren’t familiar, TGFBI is a 15-team rotisserie league with normal 5×5 scoring. Aside from the usual infield spots (1B, 2B, SS, 3B), we roster two catchers, five outfielders, one corner infielder, one middle infielder, and one utility hitter. There are also nine pitcher spots, and we draft a total of thirty players (seven bench players).
Right away I’ll say that drafting a bit of an unbalanced roster doesn’t bother me. We don’t go 50 rounds deep like a draft-and-hold, and we have FAAB at our disposal during the season. For this reason, I typically won’t overpay for saves–though I don’t mind anchoring that position with one of the top closers if the price is right. I view the catcher position similarly–a solid anchor if possible, and then I’m getting creative with my second spot. There are just too many roster positions needed for me to pay up for a second closer or catcher. Additionally, if I have to be weaker anywhere, I’d prefer it to be at the bottom of my outfield and/or the bottom of my pitching ranks. Reminder, FAAB is a beautiful thing, folks. Streaming starters at the bottom end of my pitching roster is just part of the game, and I’m pretty comfortable finding outfielders who can contribute meaningfully. I also don’t mind throwing a third reliever into my lineup when one is viable. So taking a late dart on a third closer was a goal.
Overall Roster
Here’s how my hitting shook out:
C: William Contreras
C: Danny Jansen
1B: Bryce Harper
2B: Jose Altuve
SS: Nico Hoerner
3B: Isaac Paredes
CI: Andrew Vaughn
MI: Luis Rengifo
OF: Kyle Schwarber
OF: Teoscar Hernandez
OF: Jorge Soler
OF: Starling Marte
OF: Sal Frelick
UT: Andrew Benintendi
Bench hitters: Travis d’Arnaud, Javier Baez, Coby Mayo, Ceddanne Rafaela
And my pitching:
Starters: Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Chris Bassitt, Bryce Miller, Jordan Hicks, Louie Varland
Relievers: Jhoan Duran, Robert Suarez, Dany Jimenez
Bench pitchers: Jordan Montgomery, Graham Ashcraft, AJ Smith-Shawver
Rounds 1-3 Recap
I’m thankful I didn’t have the choice of Corbin Carroll at pick 9 (he was drafted right before me). I like to build on an abundance of safety in the early rounds, so Carroll’s 2023 shoulder injury wasn’t something I wanted to stomach. Here’s Dr. Dave:
All beefs regarding Twitter doctors aside, I’m happy I didn’t have that choice at pick 9. What I did have was my choice of Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, or Spencer Strider. I remembered my first (excellent) year of TGFBI, when I had a 200-inning beast of a starting pitcher in Max Scherzer…so it was Strider for me. Add with my Braves fandom, it’s a perfect storm. My first share of Strider in 2024, and in probably the most fun league that I participate in. A perfect marriage. That Strider will potentially utilize a curveball alongside the rest of his deadliness this year is the icing on the cake. One caveat–I think there are a handful of second-round hitters who offer first-round talent this year, so taking a shot on a pitcher at the end of the first didn’t bother me. I felt like I would have a great building block in Round 2, and that proved to be true.
That building block was Bryce Harper, who is an auto-click for me in Round 2 at this juncture of the fantasy baseball draft season. Harper is healthy, on a great team, in a great park, and still just 31 years old. Here’s a player comparison, using 2024 Steamer projections:
Player A (age 34): 26 HR, 13 SB, 102 R, 97 RBI, .301 BA
Player B (age 31): 29 HR, 13 SB, 94 R, 97 RBI, .284 BA
Player A is Freddie Freeman, while B is obviously Harper. The major difference here are the 15 or so batting average points, but Harper is a career .281 hitter who routinely posts xBA marks inside the top 5 percent of MLB. He also batted .293 last season, and is three years younger than Freeman. Of course, Freeman is annually inside the top 1% of MLB in xBA, and has posted actual marks of .325 and .331 over the past two years. I’m not saying Freeman isn’t a first round pick. He is, and he’s a unicorn. I am saying that one hitter not named Juan Soto who can produce a Freeman-like line is Bryce Harper, and Harper’s the one being drafted in Round 2.
On that topic, Soto’s batting average marks the last two seasons are .242 and .275. Soto is a career .284 hitter, but he is also on the move to yet another new hitting venue. I, like others, think Soto and Yankee Stadium will be an excellent marriage. But I am just a little surprised that Bryce Harper is so frequently relegated to Round 2. Taken ahead of him in my TGFBI league were Michael Harris, Austin Riley, Pete Alonso, and Elly De La Cruz. For my part, I like Harper ahead of them all, inside the back end of Round 1. Maybe he can’t duplicate Freddie Freeman’s batting average, but no one can–and Harper is elite in his own right with regard to batting average.
Round 3 for me was another MVP-caliber hitter on a good team, and with an all around skill set: Jose Altuve. The early rounds for me are all about floor, and if Harper and Altuve are healthy, I have a solid floor everywhere (including batting average, which I sometimes ignore). The only place I’m potentially behind on is steals, but there’s a plan for that later.
Rounds 4-6
These rounds were about further laying a solid foundation. I snagged Jhoan Duran as my top closer, and Nico Hoerner to further bolster BA and to help with speed. Hoerner comes with the added bonus of 2B/SS eligibility, which is nice wiggle to have in a 15-teamer with a ton of positions to draft. William Contreras was my choice to lock up a catching spot. With his mix of playing time, power, counting stats, and a solid batting average, I was excited to land him as the fourth catcher off the board. Overall, this was a really, really nice start for me. An ace, a closer, a catcher, and a safe hitting floor. The one glaring issue was not a single outfielder drafted through the first six rounds, and we start five of them.
Rounds 7-15
Aside from Isaac Paredes in Round 13, I went heavy on outfielders and starting pitching in these rounds–two commodities that dry up in a hurry. Kyle Schwarber in Round 7 was a place where I felt like my draft diverged. I was eyeballing the well-rounded skill sets of Seiya Suzuki and Bryan Reynolds, but both were drafted before my pick in the seventh round. I was also considering a second starting pitcher, but Cole Ragans and Justin Steele were drafted just before my turn as well. Therefore, I “settled” for Schwarbombs. He was a departure from the well-rounded skill sets of my early rounds, but this is what happens in the middle of your drafts, folks.
Schwarber is typically not the profile I’m looking for, but after spending my first round pick on Strider and a fifth rounder on Hoerner, the power was probably a solid addition. I also had what I felt like was a good batting average base. Add in recent reports that Schwarber’s knee issue plagued him more than he let on in 2023, and I’m happy with this play. Any regression to previous batting average marks (say, .230) will be super. It’s just a silver lining that I’ve got a little Phillies stack, too.
Teoscar Hernandez (Round 9) and Jorge Soler (Round 12) fit a similar slugging mold, and I was excited to land that much power after waiting so long to dip my toes into the outfield ranks. Teoscar Hernandez, like Schwarber, has some similar hope for a rebound in 2024, after reports that he had trouble seeing the ball in Seattle’s home park last year. His road splits last year were excellent, and now he finds himself a member of the stacked Dodgers lineup. Soler is off to a good start with San Francisco, and with the addition of Matt Chapman to lengthen that lineup, I like the Giants to be a solid offense in 2024. Soler should anchor the middle of that order and have ample opportunities to drive in the likes of Jung Hoo Lee and Thairo Estrada.
Starling Marte in Round 15 was a way to get a bit more batting average and to boost my steals count, after taking the three sluggers. In all, it’s not an overly balanced group, but the parts seemed to fit well together by draft’s end. I was pretty happy with my fifth outfielder, but more on him soon.
I drafted Chris Sale a tad aggressively in Round 8, but I knew he wouldn’t come back to me in Round 9, and I had missed out on Ragans/Steele in Round 7. If Sale gives Atlanta 130+ healthy innings, drafters are going to be elated. He gave Boston 102.2 innings last year, and he’s finally coming off of a healthy offseason, so now’s the time to draft the oft-injured 34-year-old. If he shoves this year, you aren’t going to want to pay next year’s price.
Chris Bassitt (R10) was a nice way to build in some innings, as was Jordan Montgomery (R11), assuming he signs somewhere ASAP. I might be the most excited for Bryce Miller, though. Take Lance’s words over mine:
So at the halfway point of TGFBI, my roster looked like:
5 starters and 1 closer: (Strider, Duran, Sale, Bassitt, Montgomery, Miller)
And these hitters:
C – William Contreras
1B – Bryce Harper
2B – Jose Altuve
SS – Nico Hoerner
3B – Isaac Paredes
OF – Kyle Schwarber, Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Soler, Starling Marte
If you’re counting at home, my starting roster still needed a C, CI, MI, and UTIL on the hitting side, as well as at least one more closer and two other pitching spots. My preference was for two more starters, with a late dart on a third (bench) reliever. But midway through, a 60/40 split of my resources for hitting/pitching was pretty ideal for how I typically do things.
Rounds 16-23
I chose Round 23 as an arbitrary endpoint because it was in these rounds that I rounded out (get it?) my starting roster. I took a shot on a second closer in Round 17 (Robert Suarez), but aside from him, Rounds 16-20 were about beefing up my hitting. Andrew Vaughn (CI), Luis Rengifo (MI), Sal Frelick (OF), and Danny Jansen (C) filled out my starting hitting slots, sans the UTIL position. Frelick, in particular, is one of my favorite late plays this year. He has upside in multiple forms, including versatility (infield and outfield), speed, and the fact that the Brewers have given him some chances at batting leadoff this spring. I love that late play on Frelick.
I had Garrett Whitlock and A.J. Puk in my sights during Round 21, but both were drafted before my pick. I settled on another buzzy young hurler in Louie Varland. Varland has a pathway to beginning as a starter for the Minnesota Twins due to Anthony DeSclafani’s arm soreness. Varland was sitting at 95 MPH but reached 96.3 MPH in his March 8th start, and hasn’t allowed a run over four turns this spring. His increased velocity from the end of last year has carried over, and he’s getting plenty of whiffs on his slider. There aren’t many nicer sleeper picks at starting pitcher right now in the vicinity where he is being drafted. Varland’s NFBC ADP for the month of March is 304.33 (18 DCs). He’s being drafted around injured guys like Emmet Sheehan and Edward Cabrera, and James Paxton (who I love, but how many innings are you banking on?). Directly after Varland is Lance Lynn (no thanks) and Tyler Wells (solid, but low Ks and on borrowed time when the Orioles staff gets healthy). I like Varland at his current ADP.
The next round hurt a bit! I was hoping for James “Big Maple” Paxton, but he was sniped right before me. I had to settle for the flamethrowing reliever-turned-starter, Jordan Hicks. Hey, I was skeptical of Seth Lugo last year, too, and that worked out okay. Hicks could dial down his velo to stretch himself out, and still be elite in that respect. He’s currently in the 100th percentile for fastball velocity, for what it’s worth. As a guy who induces a ton of ground balls, the recent addition of Matt Chapman has me excited for him. Nick Ahmed is a great glove man at shortstop, and Thairo Estrada performed well defensively last season. So long as Hicks focuses on throwing strikes and relies on his defense, there could be some sneaky value here. That’s a big “if,” which is why it hurt to not land Paxton. As least with Big Maple, I know I’m getting solid innings until the inevitable injury, at which point he becomes a drop.
My Round 23 pick was Ceddanne Rafaela. I was eyeballing Ty France for my final UTIL spot, but he didn’t make it back to me. Neither did Orlando Arcia, as I was on the hunt for shortstop depth. So I pivoted and went with another outfielder, a position where you can’t have too much depth given that you must start five of them. If Rafaela takes the center field job in Boston, this team could be cookin’ with gas. He’s Boston’s No. 4 prospect, and MLB.com’s No. 76 overall prospect. Rafaela is up to three homers so far this spring, and (more notably) has been working deep counts instead of aggressively chasing everything. I’m a sucker for plus defender types who might potentially surprise with the stick, so sign me up for this:
It sounds like Red Sox would prefer to keep Rafaela down at the beginning of this year and garner another year of control, but with injuries to Vaughn Grissom and Rob Refsnyder–as well as the hitting woes of Wilyer Abreu–Rafaela may leave them with little choice based on his spring production. He’s also slated to get reps in the middle infield next week, as the keystone could be another spot where he could find himself in Boston’s lineup. Again, the ability to contribute defensively is something that I love when taking shots on players like this.
Rounds 24-30
My Round 24 pick was a guy I considered alongside Rafaela, and he made it all the way back to me. Apparently, no one is into the leadoff hitter for the White Sox. He’ll bat in front of Luis Robert Jr., Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Andrew Vaughn–and that’s not as bad as the Twitter echo chamber would have you think it is, especially in that home park. This is akin to the “closer on a bad team” strategy. That the rest of the White Sox team is likely putrid shouldn’t affect the ability of the top few hitters to make some noise. Therefore, welcome to the TGFBI squad, Andrew Benintendi.
Benintendi is still just 29 years old, and he’s a career .276/.347/.418 hitter. Last year’s .356 SLG was the worst mark of his career, excusing a 14-game sample from the abbreviated 2020 season. Beni was also afflicted by a hand injury last year. He still managed to bat .262, scored over 70 runs, and swiped 13 bags. He was a great fit for my TGFBI team here, as the boost to batting average was something I felt I needed. But is there a rebound coming in the power department? If you think so, you should be hitting the draft button on Beni…
Steamer has only 28 outfielders projected for a .269 BA or above this year (Beni’s projected batting average is .269). Of those 28 outfielders, only nine players project for double-digit homers and steals. Here are said players, along with their Draft Champions ADP since February 23 (21 drafts):
Ronald Acuna Jr. (1.00)
Julio Rodriguez (2.90)
Mookie Betts (4.81)
Corbin Carroll (6.24)
Kyle Tucker (6.81)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (8.62)
Juan Soto (9.95)
Bryce Harper (17.29)
Michael Harris II (29.00)
Andrew Benintendi (366.86)
One of those is NOT like the other. This also helps to explain my love for Bryce Harper and Michael Harris II this year. Also, Harper won’t carry outfield eligibility in some leagues, certainly not at the NFBC. Which just makes the grouping more elite. If Benintendi rebounds AT ALL in the power department, he has a chance to be very productive for his cost. He still has four years and over $60 million left on his deal in Chicago, and there aren’t any other viable leadoff options. The more I consider him, the more I like the play. Who else are the White Sox trotting out there?
Three of my last six picks were starters, given the uncertainty surrounding Jordan Montgomery, and the fact that I like having multiple arms available on my bench (so I’m not constantly burning through FAAB for streaming options). AJ Smith-Shawver is a popular draft-and-hold target for me in 2024, as (potentially) a direct replacement for any Chris Sale injury. Unfortunately, he’s already been optioned to Triple-A, so I’ll have early decisions to make as to whether or not I can justify him as part of a short bench (likely not for very long). I still think he’ll get a shot at big league innings in 2024, though, so he’s a name to file away.
Graham Ashcraft…honestly I don’t know. He had toe surgery in September, but he also had some stretches of dominance in 2023, and appears to be healthy now. He just worked four innings (great!) in his March 13th start, but struggled with locating his slider. Take it with a grain of salt, but he has a 7.00 ERA over his three spring starts. When will those stretches of dominance happen in 2024? Hopefully when I need him in my lineup. I’ll be watching his next turn, for sure.
Dany Jimenez is me coming off of my early draft season Mason Miller love a bit. I’m a sucker for closers in Oakland, ever since hitting it big with Blake Treinen back in the inaugural TGFBI (9 wins, 38 saves, 100 SO, 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). That’s one way to punt the position and compete, eh? The 30-year-old Jimenez is the most experienced closing candidate in Oakland, and manager Mark Kotsay has publicly stated that Mason Miller will begin the season in lower leverage spots–with the caveat being that he would like to see him work his way up the reliever ladder. Jimenez is me taking a dart on the most experienced arm, and banking on Miller performing in a fireman’s type of role (the multi-inning stopper, a la early career Josh Hader). Who knows what happens, but it’s clear this isn’t going to be Miller’s gig from the jump. Darts on Jimenez, Lucas Erceg, and maybe even Trevor Gott make sense at the tail end of your drafts, or on your watch lists if you’re into that sort of thing. I think this is at least a co-closer sort of situation for Jimenez from the outset, though–if not his job entirely. That has some value, even on a team we think will be bad.
My bench hitters wound up being Javier Baez, Coby Mayo, and Travis d’Arnaud. I probably cant carry a third catcher for very long in this format, but I’m a fan of TDA and think he’ll produce in limited duty–similar to Jansen, honestly. I didn’t mind drafting two of them, since the arms available at that juncture of my draft weren’t enticing. Update–since the initial writing, Danny Jansen has broken his wrist and is out for a few weeks. I guess you’re not on the block yet, d’Arnaud.
In February of this year, Baez discussed battling lower back and core issues over the last two seasons. Considering the low quality of his first two years in Detroit, versus the borderline franchise player we all saw in Chicago, that news is enough for me to take a shot on him late in drafts this year. Baez had 17 homers and nine steals two years ago, and managed nine homers and 12 steals last season. If he has any sort of rebound in the health department, you could have a .240+ hitter with 15/10 potential. That’s a worthy bench bat, folks. I’m ignoring his putrid start to spring so far. That said, if the awfulness continues into the season, he becomes an easy drop.
Coby Mayo is another up and coming stud for the Baltimore Orioles, one we would all probably know more about if it weren’t for the hype train surrounding Jackson Holliday. Mayo was drafted out of Parkland, Florida’s Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, and is the No. 23 prospect on the Fangraphs Top 100. He managed a robust 156 wRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A last season, and did so as a 21-year-old. Mayo is a bat-first prospect, but encouraging reviews about changing his arm slot to make more accurate throws from third base are nice, as are reports about more focus on his athleticism and footwork. Jordan Westburg should factor into 2B and 3B this year, with perhaps some time at shortstop as well. It’s a crowded place in Baltimore these days, with a ton a talent. But these things have a way of working themselves out. The only question is if we get any clarity before Mayo becomes a cut candidate on my TGFBI team–so here’s hoping the top half of my roster is healthy and producing. There’s nothing worse than cutting a guy you were ‘on’ but don’t have room for, only to have another manager scoop them up and then watch them go HAM.
Final TGFBI ADP thoughts
As of Saturday, March 16th, there was still one team drafting. So this data set isn’t yet complete. But after it is, I may take an overall look at it and see if anything jumps out at me. For my part, I’m anxiously awaiting some short-term deal for Jordan Montgomery. If not, I’m hitting the waiver wire waves pretty hard in the early going! What say you all? How are your TGFBI teams looking? It’s almost baseball season, people!
rotoranks 