What follows is a report of current NFBC ADP, compared to yours truly’s actual draft experiences–and the easily accessible NFBC ADP. To date, I have completed a pair of draft-and-holds and am now embroiled in my third one, which is the slowest slow draft ever. I will never do a four-hour clock again. Except for TGFBI. But other than that, it’s two hours or less for yours truly. But I digress…
Today I am sharing a few player names that current ADP may be lying to you about. This could be because of new information, an injury, a new contract, or whatever. I’m leaning on NFBC $50s ADP, as those are the drafts I am participating in. As a sidenote, those are also 12-team leagues, which I think is more of what the average bear finds him or her self participating in. No matter the case, here are a few names on the rise for 2024 fantasy baseball. One last housekeeping thing for ADP data…there have been 57 $50s completed since October of 2023, but 17 such drafts completed so far in January 2024. This isn’t an overly scientific comparison, and I did not do a full scale analysis of every player’s discrepancy in ADP. These are just a few names that currently stick out to yours truly.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Overall ADP: 157.79 (57 drafts)
January ADP: 138.35 (17 drafts)
Chourio has a min. pick of 115 this month, which is right around the likes of Esteury Ruiz and George Springer. Which honestly, when you say it that way, it sounds fair. Ruiz isn’t even on my draft board, and the 34-year-old Springer isn’t likely to give anyone a full season again. Chourio, who will turn 20 years old in March, is a center field prospect who oozes power and speed. Will he hit at the MLB level? Your guess is as good as mine. But he torpedoed Double-A last year, popping 22 homers and swiping 43 bags, while slashing .280/.336/.467. Steamer’s projection is an 18/17 season, with a batting average above .250. That’s Cedric Mullins (ADP 144.82) with less speed, unless you think Mullins is going to be platooned (I don’t). That said, Chourio has that alluring unknown ‘upside’ factor. It looks like you’ll need to pay for it this year. Me, I’m probably drafting more known commodities like Mullins, or like Ian Happ a bit later.
Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B, Cincinnati Reds
Overall ADP: 245.33 (57 drafts)
January ADP: 212.76 (17 drafts)
Candelario parlayed a career year last season into a three-year, $45 million contract with the Reds. Let’s be realistic, though. He’s a compiler, and the reason he has moved up boards is the supposed certainty of at-bats. And I guess that’s fair, given the contract. Still, he won’t ‘wow’ you in any area, and I wouldn’t bank on last year’s eight swipes happening again, either. I think he’s fine as a corner infield bat, but I haven’t landed him anywhere yet. Someone else always likes him better. Me, I more prefer Nate Lowe, who is being drafted in the same area. Lowe is two years younger, on a better team, and even in a down ’23, still managed 11 more points on batting average and superior counting stats due to playing like literally every day. In other words, I like his ability to compile more than I like Candelario’s.
Henry Davis, “OF,” Pittsburgh Pirates
Overall ADP: 255.91 (57 drafts)
January ADP: 233.94 (17 drafts)
Davis is only outfield eligible currently, but that will change now that fellow catcher Endy Rodriguez is shelved for the entire season. Davis will now shift behind the plate, and if he catches catcher (yikes) eligibility, that will be a benefit to his value for fantasy baseball. This is the inverse of Daulton Varsho’s 2024 value. Varsho is no longer a catcher, so we aren’t as enthused with his low batting average and double-digit power, given that he’s solely available this year as an outfielder. But you can stomach a lower batting average if it comes behind the plate, especially when there’s power to be had. Davis has plus-plus raw power, but he also checked in at the 72nd percentile in sprint speed during his 2023 cup of coffee. Steamer projects 15 homers and nine steals, with a .244/.339/.411 slash line. That ADP puts Davis at the bottom end of C2 options, per current data. I’ve yet to snag him in any of my first three drafts, but next time I’ll be ready. Ryan Jeffers (ADP 252.82) is a nice consolation if I miss out, and one of the last backstops I get halfway excited about.
Chris Sale, SP, Atlanta Braves
Overall ADP: 172.67
January ADP: 154.00
Maybe Sale’s ADP has flattened out for now, but the min. pick of 130 could portend the future if we continue getting positive news about his health. There would likely be too great a temptation for your fellow drafters given his fresh team environs with the Bravos. For reference, starters being drafted from 125 to 150 on average are: Justin Verlander, Hunter Greene, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Bassitt, Michael King, and Merrill Kelly. Right after Sale is Shane Bieber. Who is ready to say emphatically that Sale can’t outperform half of the pitchers listed here? I’m not. He tallied 102 2/3 innings in a rebound 2023, and his 22.6% K-BB% would have ranked sixth-best in the majors among qualified starters last year. The guys ahead of him? Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman, Pablo Lopez, Zach Eflin, and Freddy Peralta. That’s elite company. At an ADP of 150, there isn’t a ton of safety behind Sale, though you could argue there’s some just ahead of him. This could come down to a roster construction thing, and an argument to be had for securing so-called “safe” starting pitchers early than this draft juncture. Me, I’m okay with the January ADP, as I’m waiting until probably the 180s before dipping my toes back in again if I don’t get to take a shot on King or Sale.
Mason Miller, RP, Oakland Athletics
Overall ADP: 244.32
January ADP: 223.29
Unless Oakland makes a splash in the bullpen, you should get used to seeing Miller’s name in this year’s closer rankings. Drafters at the NFBC aren’t considering any other saves option for Oakland until Lucas Erceg (ADP 542.35). If you’re doing that, though, I think you could just as easily wait for Dany Jimenez (599.88). Anyway, in Miller we get a guy who throws FLAMES (97th percentile fastball velo last year). As a starter in waiting, he also has more than two pitches to call upon. Last year it was fastball, slider, and cutter, but he also has a changeup. I dig the home park environs–you’re not swimming upstream with a poor pitching environment. There may not be a ton of chances on a bad team, but if Miller gives you 20+ with quality ratios and strikeouts, that will play at his current ADP. I’m super thankful to have snagged him in my current draft, where I also took Ryan Pressly (yikes).
Ultimately, you make your own call with regard to who you draft. But on this list, my favorite names are Chourio (for upside), Sale (Braves homer) and Miller (mostly for the current ADP). I’ll likely be out on Miller if his prices rises with more certainty of the role. But for now…happy drafting!
rotoranks 