I do a couple of fantasy baseball drafts early on, prior to doing tons of research. Call me crazy, but I still like to have FUN with this game. I also enjoy not putting too much weight onto last season, and attempting to soak up falling values (theoretically). What I love about baseball is the patience required to play. Players can underperform for a variety of reasons. Natural dips happen, slumps happen, injuries happen, etc. I’m not drafting like it’s 2023, but I am drafting with an eye towards players who might get overlooked due to underperformance or injury last season.
What follows are the 11 players I wound up drafting in both of my initial draft-and-holds, so I wanted to pause and reflect on each one of them. It’s nice to see if I’m on the right track, or if I’m missing something with any of these guys. If you see something I don’t, feel free to enlighten me.
Juan Soto, OF (NYY)
ADP: 15.48 (min. 12, max 20)
Soto is a side effect of being saddled with picks 9 and 10 in my first two drafts. KDS was unkind to me. Or, was it? Both times, I felt that Soto was the best hitter to pair with my Round 1 pick, and it’s probably because he does a bit of everything. I chose Soto over more limited speed types like Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge. I also lean Soto over Bryce Harper. The combination of youth and home park are too much for me to ignore.
Soto’s home/away splits last season were well documented, as he batted .275 overall despite posting a .240 batting average at home (.307 on the road). With the short right field porch of Yankee Stadium now at his disposal, I’d bet good money he bats over .240 at home in 2024. A career mark in homers and RBI could also be on the table. Add in Soto’s ability to chip in with 5 to 10 steals, and I’m sold. There is a dearth of sturdy outfield types available, and these draft and hold formats start five outfielders. It’s nice to lock one up early on in 2024.
Jose LeClerc, RP (TEX)
ADP: 194.26 (min. 120, max 313)
LeClerc turns just 30 years old this December, and he has now posted back-to-back seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA (2.83 and 2.68). His 2023 season was bumpy early on due to not being 100% healthy during Spring Training, but by season’s end his velocity was back up to normal and he was the most trusted man Bruce Bochy had in the bullpen. On the postseason run to the first ever World Series championship by the Rangers, LeClerc had 13 appearances, a 3.29 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP to go along with his four saves. Call it a small sample if you like, but so were his 6.2 innings in May of last year, which was his worst “month” of baseball by far.
After the quality postseason, Texas picked up LeClerc’s option of $6 million instead of letting him walk in free agency. So far, only the 36-year-old Kirby Yates has been added to this bullpen, so I’m going to have a fair share of LeClerc around his ADP, I’d say. I first snagged him in Round 16 at pick 184. But in that draft, closers were going earlier than ADP, so I went for it. In my second one, I learned from that early reach, and snagged him at pick 255 in Round 22…much more palatable. That’s why we draft early, folks.
Anyway, I don’t see anything amiss with LeClerc’s ability to limit contact, and he’s making hitters chase at very good rates over the last two seasons. It’s possible the Rangers protect him a bit from some lefty-heavy matchups, but I still think he can do enough to return value around his ADP. That said, I might pump the brakes on him in my next draft and spread RP2 love around a bit. Pitchers have an inherent volatility, either due to luck or injury or just plain old misfortune. There’s also a possibility that the Rangers add to this bullpen, as it wasn’t a strength for the bulk of 2023 (Josh Hader, anyone?). We will see.
Lucas Giolito, P, Free Agent
ADP: 205.35 (min. 143, max 260)
Giolito began last season with the White Sox, but was shipped to the Angels at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, he never got going there, and wound up being plucked off of waivers by the Guardians about a month later. Now he’s looking for a new home, after allowing 41 homers over last year’s 184.1 innings (a 2.00 HR/9). Still, he’s only 29 years old, he’s durable, he strikes out a ton of guys, and he pitched to a 3.45 ERA in the first half last season. Getting bounced around the league and learning new organizations can’t be the best way to get at consistency, can it? Giolito’s home splits were also encouraging–a .197/.268/.388 slash, 3.58 ERA, and .299 wOBA. I’m just saying, there’s a chance. I made some money taking a shot on Jose Berrios last season, and I’m interested in Giolito at his ADP this year. In both drafts, I took him in Round 19, at picks 225 and 226. I’m fine to chase some upside in this way, as I am a sucker for veterans who have proven the ability to produce in the past. Stay tuned on the landing spot, though, as that could tilt the scales one way or another moving forward.
Jarred Kelenic, OF (ATL)
ADP: 226.74 (min. 154, max 262)
Kelenic was one of my most drafted players last year, and I was feeling good about his production until he kicked a water cooler and derailed what was a useful season for a guy who was a depth outfield play. The narrative-loving part of my psyche DIGS his new landing spot with Atlanta, where he will not be asked to do much. A player with his physical tools in a low pressure environment? I’m salivating at what he can do in 2024. I was on the clock in my first draft when the news broke, and I took him aggressively around pick 180. In my second draft, I did everything I could to not overreact, and I still landed him in the 220s. Apparently, I’m going to like Kelenic’s chances more than the average drafter this season.
One safety net is Kelenic’s ability to hit the ball hard when he does make contact. Kelenic’s 38.8% sweet spot rate was 22nd in the Majors last year, a metric led by the like of Freddie Freeman and Luis Arraez. He also posted a solid hard hit rate (73rd percentile) and a quality average exit velocity mark (75th percentile). Lastly, though the strikeouts continue to be an issue, his ability to take a walk (career 9.5%) gives him another avenue to usefulness. Once he’s on base, he grades out as an above average runner, and he attempted 18 steals in just 105 games last year. This is a reasonable pathway to double-digit homers and steals, and I think there is room for growth from the 24-year-old former top prospect. Kelenic was once projected as a heart-of-the-order bat, and now he gets the benefit of learning from a stellar Braves organization. I’m into the current ADP around pick 230. He’s being drafted around similarly risky types like Christopher Morel, Starling Marte, and Jack Suwinski. This all just about what sort of risk you’re willing to take on, and speaks again to the merit of locking up the outfield position early.
Carlos Correa, SS (MIN)
ADP: 234.96 (min. 164, max 285)
Correa is buried in the rankings, being taken on average as the 22nd shortstop thus far. The 31-year-old Trevor Story slashed .203/.250/.316 in his partial season return from injury last year, and even he is being taken ahead of Correa. I’m willing to give Correa a pass after a tumultuous offseason ahead of last year, when he had mega-deals with the Giants and Mets that fell through. Ultimately, he signed on with Minnesota for a (discounted!) six years and $200 million. I think a return to normalcy this offseason could be enough for Correa to rebound to career levels, at least.
This is a four category contributor if everything breaks right, and he’s still just 29 years old. Correa is a career .272/.351/.468 hitter, and I would expect 20+ dingers, 150+ runs and RBI, and a .260 average if he is healthy. He has boasted double-digit walk rates in each of the last three years, and striking out has never been an issue for him (career 20.8%). Another year to get settled, a normal offseason, and some reinforcements in the form of Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis have me excited for a Correa rebound in 2024–at least at his ADP. I snagged him at pick 232 (Round 20) and at pick 250 (R21) in my two drafts. If Correa is nearing his max pick in any draft and I’m in need of a middle infielder, I’m just fine locking up his skill set for that position. I also typically have enough speed by this juncture to make this move. Just know the sort of roster you are constructing. If you’re after speed, Correa’s not your guy. You could look at Ezequiel Tovar or Jeremy Pena instead, as they are being drafted in the same general vicinity.
Brandon Marsh, OF (PHI)
ADP: 364.13 (min. 254, max 433)
Marsh has now posted back-to-back seasons with at least 11 homers and 10 steals, which is the definition of “depth outfielder that Heath likes.” He grades out well defensively and has some pop and some wheels…what’s not to like? As I see it, there’s room for Marsh and for Johan Rojas in Philly, but Marsh will need to hit left-handers better to truly break out. He will also have some competition in the form of Rojas–who still must earn the starting CF job–and in the right-handed Cristian Pache, who slashed .314/.375/.549 with a pair of homers and six doubles in limited duty against RHP last season. Still, Pache siphoning away at-bats is as much a risk to Rojas as it is to Marsh. And it’s Pache we are talking about, so it isn’t a huge risk.
Marsh is someone you’re managing anyway against lefties, given last year’s atrocious 39.1% strikeout rate in that split. He wasn’t a total zero, though, with a .321 OBP, .315 wOBA, and 96 wRC+ in that split. Add in his outfield defense, and well–I think Marsh may get another crack at plenty of at-bats in 2024. He’s being drafted in an area with guys like Alex Kirilloff (can he stay healthy?), Chris Taylor (really?), and LaMonte Wade Jr. (another lefty bat with platoon risk, except without Marsh’s speed). I think the current ADP is fair. Lastly, Marsh had a shoulder issue to begin 2023…so hopefully he’ll improve on what he did last year as he enters 2024 healthy. He’s still just 26 years, and he was 80th percentile or better in average EV, hard hit rate, sweet spot percentage, and walk rate in 2023. I last drafted him at pick 394, the friggin’ nosebleeds. I think that’s silly. That’s Jose Quintana territory. That’s disrespectful of Marsh and his lusciuos man-beard.
DL Hall, P (BAL)
ADP: 427.79 (min. 281, max 497)
I’ll confess to being a sucker for SP/RP types, even in draft-and-holds. You never quite know what you might need, and having a guy who could work his way in as a starter OR potentially be a late-inning arm…that’s nice. Of course, the pathway to late innings that matter looks less promising now, with the signing of Craig Kimbrel. Still, the Orioles are up and coming, and Hall is a former first round pick who is expected to play a significant role in 2024. He has a deep repertoire that should allow him to be a high-end reliever, and the ability to stream him in his spot starts is nice. For reference, he is being drafted in the same area as Dane Dunning and Steven Matz–after those guys, actually. I’d rather take a shot on the upside of youth.
Ryan Noda, 1B (OAK)
ADP: 435.04 (min. 321, max 515)
Ryan Noda’s rise from obscurity (not on the 40-man), to platoon bat, to leadoff man was a thing of beauty for me in my dynasty points league last season. I love squeezing value out of bad teams, and I think Noda fits that bill exactly in 2024. He posted a 29-homer, 3-steal season at Double-A in 2021, and followed that up with a 25/20 season at Triple-A in 2022. Noda wasn’t perfect in 2023 (34.3% strikeout rate) but he is still on the rise. He slashed .229/.364/.406 with 16 homers and three steals over 128 games last year, and with a full season under his belt I could see 20 dingers and something approaching 8+ swipes. He isn’t blessed with blazing speed (49th percentile) but he has shown the willingness to run, and was successful on three of four attempts in his debut MLB season. And if he’s batting leadoff, he’ll have the role that further encourages a little baserunning.
This is truly squeezing some blood out of a turnip, but I like the floor here for a depth corner infield bat, and seeing more growth at the MLB level would not surprise me. For general information, he was once compared to Kevin Youkilis, the Greek God of Walks (but obviously from the other side of the plate). For Noda’s part, he once said that he has tried to model his approach at the plate after a guy named Joey Votto. That’s a high bar to be sure, but he doesn’t have to reach it to be viable after pick 400. The patience at the plate looks like a feature, not an anomaly. Last year’s 15.6% walk rate was inside the top 2% of the league, for reference. Give him a bump in your OBP formats.
Josh Rojas, 2B/3B (SEA)
ADP: 466.50 (min. 387, max 548)
I have drafted Rojas twice as a depth play to cover multiple infield positions. He’s on a good team in Seattle, and he’s currently projected to have (at least) the heavy side of a platoon at second base. Still just 29 years old, Rojas is just one year removed from a nine-homer, 23-steal season with Arizona in 2022. He never quite got rolling last season, but he still batted .245 and was 12-of-12 on the basepaths, albeit in limited duty (only 105 games). I’m taking shots on upside infield plays earlier than Rojas’s ADP. But after those guys are off the board, it doesn’t bug me to get a veteran on a good team. Rojas might be spelled against lefties by Luis Urias or Dylan Moore, but Urias is currently penciled in as the third base starter. Rojas also has a slightly better career batting average against southpaws, as well as 10 more points of OBP. Maybe this isn’t as “meh” of a play as I think. The Mariners seem a bit strapped for cash given this deal with the ROOT Sports network deal that goes into effect on January 1, so they may choose to spend elsewhere besides infield. They’ve lost Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic from last year’s roster–I could see them adding a right-handed outfield power bat.
Tanner Houck, P (BOS)
ADP: 470.04 (min. 352, max 574)
Houck fits the DL Hall bill, just many, many picks later. He and his teammate Garrett Whitlock are guys I’m certain to have shares of in 2024. In fact, I believe I am obligated to draft Houck in as many places as possible, after once watching him dismantle the Atlanta Braves with his wicked slider. Houck’s 5.01 ERA from last year did not match his 4.21 xERA. Furthermore, Houck’s 4.07 xFIP was much more in line with his career 3.86 ERA. If you’re a Boston fan, you have to be hoping they add to their rotation. As is, only Brayan Bello and Chris Sale look to have guaranteed spots, with a host of guys coming after that have been used in starter and reliever roles. And we know Sale isn’t the picture of health anymore. Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford are more obvious names to draft, but don’t forget about Whitlock and Houck past pick 400 in your draft-and-holds.
I’m throwing this post out into ether in the spirit of “great is the enemy of good.” Nothing is going to be perfect! But I’m open to having conversations about anyone else’s drafting. Draft season is fully upon yours truly as soon as the calendar year flips to 2024. Let’s do this!!
rotoranks 