Yours truly has been mostly out of the fantasy baseball content game for some time now. Real life has a way of doing that to you at times. Certain seasons of life just overtake the fake game, as they should. I find myself in one such season, and that’s okay.
That said, despite not consistently producing content, the fake game is still a great escape. And I’m currently enjoying this “personal blog” component of my life. So join me in tracking MY fantasy baseball team–my TGFBI team, to be exact. Along the way, however, I’ll share as much relevant fantasy baseball wisdom as I can find. You know, anything that might help YOUR team. Think of this like a “news and notes” deal, and we’ll get along just fine.
Standings Update
I currently rank 15th out of 420 teams in TGFBI, which isn’t nearly as exciting as being the top team out of the 42 who decided to pony up fifty bucks for the TGFBI side challenge. The top five spots get paid out, and first place is about $945.00. So there’s something to play for besides pride–though pride would be enough. Money makes it a bit more exciting, though.
Pitching Update
The news of the day–or really the last two weeks–is the loss of Spencer Strider for the season. It also seems to be the news of the year so far, with a plethora of top-flight pitchers suffering injuries. Therefore, it’s probably prudent to check-in on my current staff. I’m going to drop them loosely into buckets (starters, relievers, and bench options).
Starters: Chris Sale, Bryce Miller, Chris Bassitt, Garrett Crochet, Jordan Hicks, Jordan Montgomery, Graham Ashcraft
Jordan Montgomery made a triumphant return on Friday night, allowing one earned run over six innings in a cushy matchup against the Giants. He struck out three and didn’t walk a batter, and had some decent length (78 pitches). He’s not an overpowering guy, but he should consistently work deep into games for a good Arizona team, and he doesn’t beat himself by issuing free passes.
Monty’s return comes at a great time, as Garrett Crochet’s results are trending in the opposite direction. He’s got some filthy strikeout stuff, and he’s not walking hitters. Here are your current MLB leaders in K-BB%: Jared Jones, Freddy Peralta, Joe Ryan, Crochet, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That’s a fine grouping to be a part of. And yes, Crochet got beat up on last night against the Phillies, but he still looks good “under the hood.” The 5.61 ERA is ghastly, but that number can normalize in a hurry (i.e. in one good outing). The sample size for everyone is still small, people. Crochet’s other numbers point to better times ahead, like his 2.22 xERA (top 10%) and his .239 xwOBA (top 10%). It’s enough for me to hold on for another week, to see how he handles the Twins on the road. Minnesota has the sixth-highest K-rate against lefties, at 25.8%. They also have bottom-10 marks in wOBA and wRC+, so I’ll likely be forced into using Crochet in a good matchup next week. I’m riding that K-rate and hoping his actual ERA starts moving towards his expected marks.
I’m a fan of early Jordan Hicks returns. He has dialed back the average velocity overall–to be expected given his shift from the bullpen to a starting role–but it’s still in the 82nd percentile. He’s also generating a ton of ground balls, at a 57.4% rate (91st percentile). His strikeout rate is down to a pedestrian 20.7%, but he’s not walking batters as he has in years past (6.9%). I’d be okay pitching to contact as well, if my team had added Matt Chapman’s stellar glove work to an already good infield defense. Hicks has also upped his splitter usage this year, and if that pitch allows him to keep having success against lefty bats, I’ll ride this full-on breakout and hope some strikeouts come by way of solid volume.
Current relievers: Robert Suarez, James McArthur, Jhoan Duran*
Okay, so Duran isn’t currently active, but he threw 21 pitches to live hitters on on Friday, with no reported setbacks. A rehab assignment should be imminent, and I’ll have a stable of three closers to gobble up some saves in the early going. I’ll also be just fine starting three given the volatility of some of these starting pitchers. Lastly, James McArthur has one walk against 12 strikeouts, and his stuff looks filthy.
Bench pitchers: Alec Marsh, Louie Varland, Shelby Miller
Marsh is going to stick on my roster for now, as he’s sitting on three wins and the Royals have won all four of his starts. He shutout the powerful Orioles last night over 5.2 innings, with two walks against six strikeouts. Unfortunately he was on my TGFBI bench, but that probably won’t be the case next week–even with a home tilt against the Blue Jays on tap. He’s not overpowering and his K-rate is low, but he’s not walking hitters and he’s not getting barreled up (just three barrels on 68 batted ball events). Who would have thought the Royals’ No. 5 starter would be fantasy relevant? But here we are. Next week’s home tilt versus Toronto isn’t the greatest, but it’s better than the week after, when he’ll begin a two-start week with the Blue Jays at Toronto.
Shelby Miller was a luxury stash while I had the room, but that is a spot I’ll need to churn this coming week. He’s also expendable given that I’m sitting on three relievers already, and hearing positive news about Jhoan Duran’s return. His three early wins were nice, but I’ve got to move on.
My performance so far is:
Strikeouts: 2nd (172)
Wins: 1st (17)
Saves: Tied-5th (8)
ERA: 7th (3.53)
WHIP: 3rd (1.12)
Hitting Update
It’s an encouragement to me that I have far more pitching points than hitting points. Much of my draft capital was on hitting, and I expect the low performers on my roster to pick it up soon enough. It’s still a small sample early on, folks. You have to practice patience with your players, especially with your cornerstones. Nico Hoerner, for instance, is smoking hot during this current Week 4, after a quiet start to the year. I’m still waiting on guys like Andrew Vaughn and Luis Rengifo to help solidify the bottom end of my team, but those guys have been solid pieces in years past and I think it’s wise to expect both to pick it up in the coming weeks. It’s pretty bleak at the moment for Rengifo, though. His plate discipline has cratered, as his walk rate is at 2.0% (over 9.0% last year) and his swing rate is up over 9% from last year, while his chase rate out of the zone is 47.6% (last year was a tolerable 32.2%). The only qualified hitter swinging more than Rengifo is Javier Baez, and that’s not a list you want to be on. I think you can hold Rengifo in deeper formats (like TGFBI) but he should be benched until he shows signs of improving his approach and improves on his poor contact quality.
Andrew Benintendi is another hitter I expect to improve, but he’s a bench bat for me for the time being. His .216 BABIP is over 100 points less than his career .318 mark, so I’m hopeful his .175 BA isn’t going to hold long-term. His overall swing rate is a bit above the average bear, but down a tad from last year–while his zone swing rate is higher and swing rate out of the zone is well above average. His contact rate is the second-best of his career, and his highest mark since his banner 2018 season. I think he’s a sneaky bench play or ’round-out-your-outfield’ type if he can get back to career norms of double-digit pop and wheels. The plate discipline seems good enough, so hopefully better contact comes with more reps and warmer weather.
Ceddanne Rafaela is a guy I’m starting to worry about given the ice cold start. He’s an important defensive piece for Boston, but having to carry multiple burdens defensively can’t be the best for his level of focus at the plate. His .155/.203/.259 slash line is currently sitting on my bench, thankfully. So hopefully his replacement, Rengifo, can pick it up soon. Otherwise, I’m in a bit of MI hell with the waiver wire being pretty bereft of starting-caliber options. Javier Baez, anyone?
Here are my hitting buckets, for reference:
Starters:
William Contreras, Travis d’Arnaud
Bryce Harper, Jose Altuve, Nico Hoerner, Isaac Paredes
Kyle Schwarber, Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Soler, Starling Marte, Sal Frelick
Andrew Vaughn, Luis Rengifo, Blake Perkins
Bench:
Danny Jansen, Ceddanne Rafaela, Andrew Benintendi
And here are my hitting rankings as of 4/19/2024:
Runs: 1st
HR: tied-4th
RBI: 11th
SB: 10th
AVG: 7th
In all, I’m happy to not be towards the bottom in average. If I can tread water there, and if Hoerner starts running, I’m feeling pretty good about the team makeup. It’s time to mine for some middle infield waiver wire help moving forward…
Let me know how YOUR teams are going if you made it this far down this post, gamers. And is anyone reading this chasing me in TGFBI?
rotoranks 