It’s Week 1 of fantasy baseball, folks! We begin accumulating stats that matter beginning this Thursday. What follows is my advice for the Week 1 waiver wire, whether you find yourself in a hometown Yahoo league or in a high stakes NFBC format. There should be something for everyone here.
You can follow me on Twitter @HeathCapps with any comments or questions.
As for the waiver wire adds, I’ll start with more available players and work my way downwards. After all, not everyone plays in high stakes 15-team leagues…
Catcher
Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics (25% rostered at Yahoo)
Murphy is NOT on a good team, not by any stretch of the imagination. The Oakland lineup is an abject disaster. That’s the bad, but it weaves into the good. The ‘good’ is that he’s arguably the top bat in the lineup. His batting order slot should frequently be higher up in the order. He’s also a plus defender and he’s shown plenty of power already as a pro. As a 27-year-old who is still growing and improving, I think he can further establish himself as a power-hitting catcher in 2022. Think 20+ bombs and a batting average that is in the .235 to .245 range. I think it is a mistake that some team didn’t pry Murphy away from the rebuilding Athletics already. His cost is still going to rise.
Elias Diaz, Colorado Rockies (15% at Yahoo)
I had to blink twice–is this a typo? How is Colorado’s starting catcher only 15% rostered at Yahoo? He’s a solid bet to bat .245+ and log 15+ homers, which is my arbitrary aim for my starting backstop in one-catcher formats. And Diaz slugged 18 home runs in only 106 games last year. This year he enters with a new three-year deal as the long-term starting backstop for the Rockies. Think Omar Narvaez with more playing time, counting stats, and power numbers. I could see Diaz setting a career-high in plate appearances in 2022, finally exceeding 400 plate appearances. Only 15 catchers hit that threshold last year, and Diaz has a chance to finish inside the top five (450+) if he can stay on the field. A .250 batting average and over 20 homers is attainable.
Kyle Higashioka, New York Yankees (12% at Yahoo)
It’s time to get Higgy with it. This is a deep league play, one for those of you who need to roster two catchers. Higashioka is the leading man in New York now, given the trade of Gary Sanchez to Minnesota. Higgy’s career 12.9% barrel rate, as well as growth in that regard in his two most recent seasons (13.5% and 15.6% in ’20 and ’21) are among his most promising features. Sure, last year’s .181 batting average was ghastly, but his .233 xBA was much better and more in line with 2020’s production–.237 xBA, .250 actual BA). And sure, the small sample caveat applies to 2020, given it was a shortened season and that he logged only 37 batted ball events as Sanchez’s backup. But all of the batted ball quality measures liked Higgy’s 2021 even better than his solid 2020, and now he’s got a pathway to a TON of playing time. I think you can safely pass on a guy like James McCann (ADP 313ish) and land Higashioka much later (390ish). Or add him for nothing off of waivers. You’re hoping for a .230 batting average with power and all of the counting stats that go along with playing for the mighty Yankees.
Corner Infield
3B Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers (67% rostered)
Tork has made Detroit’s Opening Day roster. You can argue that the time to buy Tork is RIGHT NOW. His price may never be this agreeable again. He was a transcendent college hitter, and his bat has elite potential as a pro. He could be a four-category contributor from the jump (read: you aren’t getting steals here). But everything else is on the table, especially for an improving Detroit lineup (I see you, Austin Meadows). Yours truly is a boring drafter…I’d rather have Trey Mancini (ADP 225ish) in the same vicinity. And Brandon Belt looks nice, too. But Mancini and Belt likely drafted in most places already, whereas Torkelson can perhaps still be added from the wire if you’re chasing upside.
1B Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers (41% Yahoo)
Recent ADP data tells me that Brandon Belt is being drafted a bit after Lowe at the NFBC, and that feels like a mistake. But Lowe is undervalued on Yahoo. It’s no small thing that he swiped eight bags last year, and he did so while chipping in with 18 homers and a .264 batting average. You won’t find many corners who can bat .260 with 18 homers and eight steals in the fake game. Don’t believe me? Last year, only Paul Goldschmidt, Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman, and Nathaniel Lowe managed that feat. And Lowe is written in pen as the starter for Texas. You could do WAY worse for your corner infield slot, gamers.
2B/3B Diego Castillo, Pittsburgh Pirates (10% Yahoo)
No, the reliever didn’t get traded from Seattle. This is a different Diego Castillo. Crazy, huh? He’s just 24 years old, and the case for him starts with last year’s power breakout (11 homers in just 58 games before being traded to Pittsburgh from the Yankees). Castillo has also had a blistering Spring Training, with his six home runs trailing only the aforementioned Kyle Higashioka. Castillo is 13-for-32, good for a .406 batting average. Long-term, I think you’re hoping he turns into a decent contact hitter, one with modest power and a little speed. He probably profiles as more of a MI option, but he’s been slugging like a corner bat so far and I wanted to include him somewhere. There are a plethora of middle infielders to cover, after all.
Middle Infield
2B/SS Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers (47% rostered)
Lux has more opportunity for playing time given the trade of A.J. Pollock to the Chicago White Sox. He could wind up with 2B/SS/OF eligibility and do a fair Chris Taylor impression this season. Currently, he’s slated to AT LEAST start against all right-handed pitchers, though the possibility of losing some LvL at-bats to Hanser Alberto (career .333 BA, 114 wRC+ vs lefties) is legitimate. But I think there are more question marks than usual in this Dodgers lineup–i.e. more pathways to Lux playing every day. Is Max Muncy fully healed? Will Cody Bellinger actually rebound? Will Father Time catch up to Justin Turner? Not to mention, just the normal wear and tear of an MLB season. One tweak by any Dodger, and I think Lux is probably playing against LHP, too. He could get there with injury or with continued growth. He’s still just 24 years old, and last year’s second half showed enough growth for me to talk myself into him at his current ADP (250ish).
2B/3B/SS Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres (3% rostered)
Kim should be the Opening Day shortstop for the Friars given the expected two-month absence (at least) for Fernando Tatis Jr. Kim is batting .345 this spring, with four walks against six strikeouts. Of his 10 hits, four have been of the extra-base variety (two doubles, triple, homer). He has also swiped a pair of bags and not been caught. In short, the 26-year-old Korean import might be adjusting to the MLB in Year 2 after really struggling with the stick last year. He’s also an excellent defender and should have a long leash to begin the season. Playing for right now is pretty overrated in the fake game. You can figure out two months from now, two months from now. In the interim, Kim can offer a 10/10 pace at your middle infield slot, and his current ADP has him going after guys with more questionable playing time. Yes, 21-year-old stud prospect CJ Abrams has had a torrid spring, but with Kim playing well I see no reason why the organization would heap tons of pressure on Abrams, and the proverbial writing on the wall says that GM AJ Preller would prefer to have Abrams begin the season in Triple-A. After all, he’s logged only 76 games in the minors, and if he made the jump to the bigs he’d be doing so from the Double-A level, where he played in 42 games last season. I’d rather take a dart on Kim…
Outfield
Julio Rodriguez (62% rostered) is a bit too obvious, so we’ll go elsewhere…
Randal Grichuk, Colorado Rockies (56% rostered)
Grichuk isn’t a secret. He was buried in Toronto’s outfield pecking order, but he’s still a .240 sort of hitter who can EASILY crack 30 dingers in the thin air of Colorado. He can also move pretty well for a strong guy–he can play all three outfield spots (76th percentile sprint speed). I’m in love with the move for fantasy. So long as you can handle the dry times when he’s in a slump, you’ll be just fine by season’s end. He can be a streaky guy and those homers can come in bunches. And did you know–his strikeout rates over the last two seasons have been extremely tolerable–21.2% in 2020 and 20.9% in 2021. If he has a bit more BABIP luck than he did with last year’s .266 mark–feasible, in the thin air and the spacious outfield of Coors–then I think we could see the batting average move north of .250. Lastly, Grichuk’s 113.8 MPH max EV last year was inside the top 9% of the league. He’s smacked at least 22 homers in each of his last five [full] seasons (excluding the shortened 2020). A career year is in order. He’s in that ADP 240ish range where I am frequently double-tapping outfielders because there are a slew of them I like in that range. If it’s power I want, Grichuk is my guy.
Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (20% rostered)
Lowe reads like the obvious beneficiary of the Rays trading Austin Meadows for pennies on the dollar. The 24-year-old reached the coveted 20/20 plateau last season in Triple-A, and should now slot in at Tampa Bay’s primary right fielder. Sure, the Rays are platoon-happy. But the tools here are pretty loud, even if he’ll likely be prone to the strikeout at the big league level. Fun fact, on his 27 steals attempts last season, he was caught on NONE of them. He’s got 20-homer pop and speed to burn…I’m 100% in at this point, while the cost is low.
I probably missed someone, and I know I stuck to hitters. I also like guys like Jeremy Pena and Bryson Stott if you’re hunting for MI help. Random, I know. Just guys I’m rostering in multiple places. We’ll see if I can sneak in some pitching insight on the site soon enough. For now, some of the hottest adds are Matt Brash (SEA) and Nick Lodolo (CIN), both moves I support at the back end of your rotations. Guys I think are under-rostered on Yahoo are Steven Matz, Yusei Kikuchi, Jesus Luzardo, Drew Rasmussen, and Tylor Megill. If you’re hunting closers, look to guys like Art Warren or David Robertson if you’re digging deep. If your league is more shallow, I’m overly fond of Paul Sewald this year. It’s a great Seattle team, and I like Sewald’s arm more than any other in that ‘pen. Sometimes it’s simple, folks. Enjoy all those strikeouts and elite ratios, and take the saves when they come.
Who did I miss, gamers? Who are YOU adding from your waiver wires? Hopefully better than my opening week TGFBI guys, who I call the Jakes. That’s Fraley and Odorizzi. Exciting, huh?
rotoranks 