I’m mostly passing over one topic today, and that’s the Padres against LHP Kyle Freeland. Well, Freeland and the worst bullpen in the league, in Colorado’s. The Rockies did attempt to address this issue at the MLB trade deadline, acquiring the services of the underrated Mychal Givens. However, Colorado used four relievers yesterday (Sunday), as starter Ryan Castellani only managed 4.1 innings. And sure, these guys could pitch on back-to-back days. But in any event we consider four of the “best” Rockies arms mostly unavailable today. Yency Almonte (3.20 ERA, 2.43 FIP) pitched, as did Bard (3.50 ERA), Estevez (5.95 ERA), and Givens (2.30 ERA). What, you don’t think Estevez’s sub-6.00 ERA is good? Everything is relative, champ.
These relievers did NOT pitch for the Rockies yesterday:
Tyler Kinley – 7.71 ERA (and 15.6% walk rate)
Jeff Hoffman – 9.19 ERA (shiny 3.40 FIP, though)
Jairo Diaz – 9.45 ERA (and 2.02 HR/9)
Antonio Santos – 7.71 ERA (2.1 IP since recent call-up, hasn’t posted a MiLB ERA below 4.16 since 2016)
So yeah…you’re playing Padres today.
San Diego vs. LHP (also a Rowdy sighting)
As a team, the Padres rank 8th against lefties in wOBA (.343). They’re also 8th in ISO (.204). The only other lefties on the slate pitch in the same game (Montgomery and Ryu), but neither the Yankees nor the Blue Jays have lived up to potential thus far in the split. Those two teams check in at 17th and 18th in ISO, respectively, against southpaws The Padres are in the most powerful split on this slate by far. For what it’s worth, though, Blue Jays against Jordan Montgomery is appealing due to his struggles. Don’t forget Rowdy Tellez, who is hitting .364 versus LHP. Tellez only has an .091 ISO in the split, as all eight of his homers are against RHP. But he’s been on a heater, he’s batting third in the lineup, and he’s only $2,800. Now back to the Padres…
Don’t overlook Wil Myers
Wil Myers and Manny Machado lead the Padres with four homers each versus southpaws, while Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar check in with three apiece.
Myers (.386) and Machado (.362) are each batting over .300 in the split, while Tatis Jr. (.250) and Profar (.227) are lagging well behind versus LHP.
Eric Hosmer (.205 BA, 2 HR) isn’t at his best in this split, and neither are many others. Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth, Austin Nola, and Mitch Moreland all do more damage against RHP. I could see rolling with Lamet-Tatis-Machado-Myers today, and working outward from there. Maybe the final lineup will help us lean one way or another for a fourth Padre. There’s another pitcher I have my eye on, anyway…
I am into Kevin Gausman tonight. Well, I’m into Kevin Gausman always, truth be told. He’s only $7,700 today and he’s opposing Zac Gallen, which may suppress his ownership a bit. Maybe. For what it’s worth, the Giants are small home favorites, -122 at the time of this writing. And that’s against Gallen, which is saying something.
I had some interest in Houston sticks and Cristian Javier when it was the struggling Frankie Montas pitching for Oakland. Now that it appears Chris Bassitt will get the nod, I am off of stacking Astros, especially at Oakland. I’ll probably be rolling back over to the Blue Jays to fill out my lineup. I’m also partial to a cleanup Carlos Santana for only $2,700 on Fanduel. The Indians have one of the sturdiest implied totals of the day, at 4.82. Santana is never going to wow you with his batting average, but the crazy-high walk rate is a nice floor. He was also 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI last night, with an average exit velocity of 95.3 MPH. Carry that on over, Santana.
It’s 100% Gausman for me tonight. I play too few lineups to spread out the pitching love. The Diamondbacks have a .305 wOBA (25th) and 87 wRC+ (25th) against RHP–and they’re worse off than they were a week ago given that Starling Marte was traded. Over the last week, Arizona ranks 27th in ISO (.130), 29th in wOBA (.267), and 29th in wRC+ (62) against RHP. Pretty much only the Royals have been worse, and they aren’t on this slate. I love rooting for the same guy in my DFS lineups and my TGFBI lineup…makes my life simple.
Who are YOU playing tonight? Is it Max Scherzer, if you can work your way up that high? Could be worth it, given that the Rays have the highest strikeout rate in the majors over the last week, at a whopping 29.7%. They do have a .207 ISO, but that K-rate and the .207 BA sure are enticing.