I penned something similar at the beginning of the 2024 draft season, and I had 11 players on my first two draft-and-hold teams. That list was headlined by Juan Soto and rounded out with Tanner Houck, so it was the beginning of a solid (winning) season at the NFBC. Houck did eventually fade, but that was a ton of quality innings on the front end, for a bargain bin ADP.
This year, after three draft-and-holds, I have just three players drafted in all three leagues. That’s what happens when you add a third draft into the mix, instead of just two. And do a little more research for each successive draft, allegedly. At least, that’s what I use the early drafts for. It forces me to research. I mean, I don’t want to just set money on fire.
Does that mean these three guys are the key to fantasy success in 2025? I have no idea. Hence, the digging in. Let’s see what’s up with these fellas. We are now 20 days into February, and there have been 27 NFBC $50s drafted over that stretch, so it’s a great (recent) sampling of ADP data. That’s what I’ll be using. For context, the $50s are 12-team, draft-and-hold formats. No waivers means you draft deep–think of it like you’re making your waiver wire adds on the front end of the season, and two of the following names may make more sense to you.
Blake Perkins, OF124 (MLW)
ADP: 543.37 (min 431, max 595)
Perkins, like teammate Sal Frelick, fizzled out in the second half last season. But he’s enticing for his speed (top 3% of MLB) and glovework (which will get him onto the field plenty for Brewers manager Pat Murphy). I didn’t realize Perkins was 28 years old already, so that’s a bit of a knock on him. I thought he was more of an up-and-coming type. Anyway, Perkins did trim his K-rate from 27.4% to 24.9% last year, while keeping the walk rate healthy (9.7%). So here we have range, speed, a big arm, the ability to not chase, and at least some pathway to playing time if Frelick continues being anemic. There’s also the inevitable Christian Yelich injury to consider, as well as late-game defensive replacement responsibilities, which Perkins will be well-suited for.
Add it all up, and Perkins is a really, really cheap source of steals. I don’t mind adding that punch late in draft-and-holds and “managing” Perkins’ time on my roster to reflect when he’s facing a string of southpaws. That said, his age and lack of big production as a major leaguer thus far have me scared off of amassing too many shares. I also have one share in a large dynasty format, and I’ll be happy to work him in when necessary, but I won’t be amassing tons of shares in draft-and-holds.
Austin Wells, C13 (NYY)
ADP: 188.82 (min 144, max 235)
In my first draft, the room was down on catchers and I was able to wait on Wells until pick 226. In my second draft, catchers were flying off the board and I had to get in on Wells at pick 177. I don’t typically like to draft a catcher before the 150-200 range–but I also don’t want to be starting someone that’s complete garbage, either. In draft number three, I was again able to wait for forever, landing Wells near his January max, at pick 233. He was the 15th catcher off the board in that one.
Wells had a shiny summer last season. During July and August, Wells hit nine of his 13 home runs. He faded in Sept/Oct, but he also had a measly .135 BABIP over that stretch, his worst of the season by far. He still showed some skills with a healthy 9.6% walk rate and a decent 24.1% strikeout rate over this time frame. The Yankees also jettisoned Jose Trevino to the Reds this offseason, so it’s Wells’ gig to lose behind the plate. Coming over in the trade–to presumably serve as Wells’ backup–is Alex Jackson, a 28-year-old, defense-first sort of player. Jackson is 29 years old and ‘boasts’ a career .207/.273/.372 slash.
Steamer projects 16 homers, 50 runs, 53 RBI, 4 swipes, and a .231 BA. That’s just fine for one half of my catcher production. And if Wells can inch closer to his career .249 xBA, it’ll be an even better start to my first catcher spot. I concede that I like Wells’ floor more than most catchers who come behind him, which is why he has been among my picks so far. The young, starting backstop for the Yankees? A great hitting park, and surrounded by a great lineup. What’s not to like here? I’d feel differently if his ADP was rising, but it keeps doing the opposite–i.e., since I’ve been drafting, Francisco Alvarez has leapfrogged him in ADP, and Gabriel Moreno (ADP 189.14) is nipping at his heels in February drafts.
All of that said, I don’t dig Wells enough to approach some high percentage of him this draft season. He was putrid against lefties last year (59 wRC+), as all 13 of his homers came against righties. Still, he’s likely the best hitting catcher on his team against either handedness, so there should be enough volume here to matter. It wouldn’t surprise me if he crested the 60+ mark in runs and RBI, especially RBI. Last year’s double-digit walk rate, tolerable strikeout rate, and expected batting average over .240 are all encouraging. I won’t go crazy for him, but I’ll keep biting off shares if his cost keeps falling. For my part, there’s a lot of catchers I like after him, I think they just lack the certainty of Wells’ role. That alone will keep Wells in the conversation. Since catcher isn’t a position I tend to reach for, I’ll likely have shares of guys like Moreno, Keibert Ruiz, Connor Wong, Sean Murphy, and Ivan Herrera (lessening my exposure to Wells).
Alek Thomas, OF125 (ARZ)
ADP: 548.33 (min 400, max 599)
Thomas was only drafted in 22 of these 27 drafts…full disclosure. Apparently I like cobbling my fantasy outfield together, and players who are toolsy with a chance to see the strong side of a platoon are always on the radar. Much like other players I’ve drafted with regularity, Thomas has been useful when available. He had a strong 2023 and a strong 2023 postseason, but he pulled a hamstring four games into 2024 and the rest is history. Or at least, it was a lost season. Thomas tried to come back too early and endured a setback, and he also suffered an oblique strain. It was a miserable year in which he never could get going, and injuries can explain at least part of his issues.
However, Thomas is still just 24 years old, and is a former second round pick. If any ills should befall any of the regulars for Arizona, he would potentially get the call. He could also theoretically unseat Jake McCarthy or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in center and left field, respectively (but I wouldn’t say that’s the most logical outcome). Still, there’s Gold Glove defense here, with speed to burn. The mechanical bugaboo, as is the case with many, is a low average launch angle. Thomas’ average launch angle over the course of his career is a paltry 2.3 degrees, which is well off of the big league average of 12.3 degrees on average. Still, he has above average speed and he has incrementally increased his barrel rate, exit velo, and hard hit rates over his three big league seasons. If he continues his incremental improvement and stumbles onto some playing time, I could see him having a 2023 Brandon Marsh type of output. He, like Jake McCarthy (who busted out last year for Arizona), fits the type of player Arizona likes to employ. Just see Arizona’s first round pick of the 2024 amateur draft, Slade Caldwell (an undersized, toolsy lefty outfielder with speed to burn).
Add it all up, and Thomas is a guy I’m fine drafting for depth, but not someone I should be reaching for given the lack of obvious playing time from the onset in 2025.
Lastly, there’s a slew of players I’ve drafted in two of my three leagues. Here are the hitters:
Ketel Marte (I love targeting an elite second baseman this year)
Byron Buxton (For the price of a 5th outfielder? Sure!)
Ryan Mountcastle (The fences shifting in should help him reach new home run heights)
Colt Keith (I don’t see him platooning, and he’ll be 1B/2B eligible)
Carlos Correa (four-category contributor when healthy)
Danny Jansen (cheap C2, but only if my BA is covered)
Geraldo Perdomo (He just got paid! Great source of depth in draft-and-holds)
Lane Thomas (CLE will pay him about $8 million, he’s starting, nice power/speed combo)
Wilyer Abreu (High K-rate but great contact quality. He’ll be relevant vs. RHP)
Jorge Polanco (Signed for a shade under $8 million to start for SEA, will have 2B/3B eligibility)
Okay fine, this wasn’t a pitching post, but here are the pitchers I’ve taken in two of three drafts:
Luis Severino (Drafted him before the ATH signing. That park may mean I don’t add a ton more)
Ryne Nelson (Deep rotation in the desert, but it’s a long season and love his velo and extension)
Zack Littell (A deep group in Tampa, but Littell was their most consistent arm last year, and he’s actually their most expensive pitcher this year. You tell me what that means to you…)
Triston McKenzie (He’s too cheap. If he recaptures anything, this pick is golden)
Paul Blackburn (Good team context. Streamer at some point)
Michael King (Legitimate fantasy ace for my 2025 teams)
Freddy Peralta (He’s too cheap for his K-output and team context, which is still excellent)
Tanner Houck (Faded last year, hopefully more stamina this year)
Jose Quintana (Yes, I love oatmeal. Give me all the boring vets in my draft-and-holds)
Prelander Berroa (Perhaps the coolest name in MLB. Sounds like a future closer, right?)
Okay ya’ll. I hope this helps someone. What say you…anyone feel great about Austin Wells? Who are your late-round lottery picks?!? I’m busy moving Harrison Bader up my boards…
rotoranks 