This is as much recordkeeping as it is analysis. Yours truly is in 11 leagues at the NFBC, including TGFBI, the RazzSlam, and WHARF. The remaining eight are four NFBC50s and four Draft Champions. So, a modest amount of leagues. That doesn’t include my dynasty and hometown tilts, but the hometown league is typically where I go full YOLO and not how I draft when I’m being serious. And dynasty is a different animal altogether. So we’ll keep the player shares strictly NFBC.
Here are the hitters I roster in at least four of my NFBC leagues (so, 36.4% and up):
1B Trey Mancini, BAL (8 of 11 leagues, or 72.7%)
Okay, so over 70% exposure is pretty heavy. But no one wanted this guy in my leagues. I didn’t draft him in my third NFBC50 because I started with Vladdy and ignored first base until Nathaniel Lowe in Round 25. Similarly, in my first DC I had Matt Olson early on and ignored first base until Rounds 27 (Christian Walker) and 28 (Eric Hosmer). But mostly, I was excited to land a proven bat as my corner infield stick for what I felt like was a fair price.
Mancini’s return from cancer last season has to be considered a success, as the final stat line of 21 homers and 70+ RBI and 70+ runs would have been even better if not for a second half fade. Mancini himself noted feeling fatigued in his first year back, which is understandable given his return from chemo and everything associated with his recovery. He slashed .255/.326/.432 overall, but his first half slash of .256/.331/.460 is a little more in line with his true ability. Given he just turned 30 years old in March, a return to more power would not surprise me. The last time he was fully healthy he gave us 35 homers, 106 runs, 97 RBI, and a .291/.364/.535 slash line. We always talk about pitchers being healthier the further removed they get from Tommy John surgery…we can’t do the same for Mancini in his much more demanding circumstances?
1B Christian Walker, ARZ (5 of 11 leagues, or 54.5%)
Last year’s splits indicate that Walker’s season was undone by an oblique injury. If I’m right about that, his hard hit rate should rebound in 2022. His Gold Glove caliber defense should keep him in the lineup every day, too. Lastly, his plate discipline actually improved last year from the year prior (less chasing out of the zone, more swinging in the zone). Here’s last year’s player profile on Walker. He had an ADP around 200 heading into 2021. This year? Around 380 or so. I’m either using him to plug holes in my draft and holds or keeping him on my watch list in shallow formats. If he’s healthy he can give you a decent batting average and threaten for 25 bombs.
OF Randal Grichuk, TOR (5 of 11 leagues, 54.5%)
No, I didn’t know he’d be traded to more playing time at Coors Field, but I’ll take it. Grichuk was traded on March 24th, and at the time he had a March DC ADP of 311. From March 24th until Opening Day, his ADP was 241. I’m happy I got in on the front end. There were a plethora of outfielders I liked in that 240 range, so I may not have had quite as much exposure otherwise. What I saw was a 30-homer bat that just needed playing time. Sometimes, these things just work themselves out. As a guy who is athletic enough to man all three outfield spots and with prodigious power, I couldn’t be happier with his new home locale. The average won’t ‘wow’ you, but be sure to ride those hot streaks…
OF Austin Hays, BAL (5 of 11 leagues, 54.5%)
Here is one of my outfielders in that 240 range. I didn’t like him significantly better than some other options, but my fellow drafters apparently liked him much less so he kept hanging around. Hays offers some power and some speed, and he’s a top 5 hitter in Baltimore. That’s a location I’m still willing to refer to as a hitter’s locale despite the offseason fence movement. And anyway, a guy who can threaten for a 25/7 sort of season is always going to be on my radar, regardless of where he plays his home games. The issue here seems like more health than it does skill set. Hays doesn’t strikeout much and improved his chase rate by 5% last year from the year prior. He can also run a little. He’s a bit of a compiler, but I feel good about that given his status as one of the premium Baltimore bats.
Picks I made in 4 of 11 leagues (36.4%):
Nick Solak, TEX
Abraham Toro, SEA
Willson Contreras, CHC
Amed Rosario, CLE
Tim Anderson, CWS
Dom Nunez, COL
Randy Arozarena, TB
Jose Abreu, CWS
Mark Canha, NYM
Those are just for giggles. These guys I mostly just liked more than others, especially Jose Abreu. I viewed him as the last of the first base position’s elite and overly trustworthy bats, and he frequently hung on long enough for me to draft him. I like stability, what can I say?
What say you, gamers? Where did I go wrong? Who are YOU rooting for on the hitting side of things? It’s Grichuk and Hays both around 50% rostered in your Yahoo leagues…those are the guys I’d make sure I had if I needed outfield help. Walker (4% rostered) is more of a watch list guy, while we see how he rebounds this year.
rotoranks 