Happy Saturday, gamers! Not only is it the weekend, but yours truly just entered into Spring Break from teaching…so it’s a double whammy of awesome right now. That’s to your benefit this morning (I hope) since I have a little extra time to dip my toes into the fantasy baseball waters.
I’ll try to hook the world up with some Saturday and Sunday streamers as often as I can. And I’m not going to burden myself by trying to dig into EVERY possible play. I’m going to pick one play and dig into it, and see what I unearth. Today, it’s Drew Rasmussen against the Baltimore Orioles.
Drew Rasmussen vs. Baltimore Orioles (34% rostered)
Rasmussen at 34% on Yahoo seems pretty light compared to his NFBC buzz and draft season ADP. Over the final nine days of DC drafts in April, he had an ADP around 260, just behind Steven Matz (56% rostered). I’m not suggesting it’s egregious. I’m just saying he might be a little undervalued at Yahoo right now, similar to arms like Jesus Luzardo (33%) and Bailey Ober (38%). Luzardo and Ober were also drafted in the same range. Honestly, it doesn’t look egregious, it just looks like prime streamer territory. These are the young guns that make great adds in plus matchups. Not only can they help you for a day, but they could also continue to perform. Then you’ve got a quality young gun on the back end of your hometown league roster.
Here are two things I like about Rasumussen:
Shouts to Gil and to Rasmussen. That’s a fine list to be on. As for Rasmussen, the 26-year-old can bring the heat. He averaged 97.3 MPH on his four-seam fastball last year. He pairs that with a power slider, while also sprinkling in a curveball and a changeup. Baseball Savant is onto something, too. Similar pitchers to Rasmussen, based on velocity and movement, are Luis Gil, Dinelson Lamet, Huascar Ynoa, Dylan Cease, and Carlos Hernandez (KC). Again, a pretty fine list.
If you recall, Rasmussen was the main part of the haul for the Rays last May when they traded Willy Adames to the Brewers. What Tampa received in Rasmussen was a high-strikeout guy in the minors who had struggled with walks. But enter the Rays with all their pitching wizardry, and we’ve got hope for major upside given last year’s average-ish 8.1% walk rate by Rasmussen over his 76 innings. And any way you slice it, last year’s first and second half splits for Rasmussen look promising.
1st half: .222/.325/.354
2nd half: .193/.234/.282
So this trade between the Brew Crew and the Rays went down in May, right? Well, in the month of July he had 14 strikeouts against one walk (12.1 innings) and in Sept/Oct he had 15 strikeouts against two walks (24.0 innings). Overall, his 10 walks in the second half (50.1 innings) were FAR better than his 15 walks over 25.2 first half innings. Or, if you think in percentages like I do, that was a 13.2% walk rate in the first half against a 5.2% rate in the second.
It’s also encouraging that Rasmussen pitched longer for the Rays than he did for the Brewers last year. Whereas Milwaukee utilized Rasmussen strictly as a one or two inning reliever, the Rays slowly stretched Rasmussen out into a starter. On June 19th of last year, he pitched 1.2 innings for Tampa in his first appearance. By June 30th he was up to two innings. In July he never pitched fewer than two innings and worked up to three innings against Cleveland on July 24th. In August, he pitched four innings twice and culminated with five innings of work on August 24th. Rasmussen began September with four innings against Boston on September 1st, and then pitched exactly five innings in his remaining four appearances of the season. In short, Rasmussen was better as a starter than he was as a reliever in 2021, and he was slowly worked up into the starter’s role. In the immortal words of Kirk Cousins, “you like that.”
As for the spring, on April 3rd in his final tune-up Rasmussen managed 3.1 innings with six strikeouts against the Pirates. Sure, Pittsburgh isn’t a difficult matchup, but the piece I dig is the ZERO walks allowed. And zero walks issued over the entirety of Rasmussen’s 8.1 Spring Training innings (against 10 strikeouts).
As for today’s opponent, the Orioles are coming into 2022 without expectations to win. I can say that safely when Jordan Lyles is your No. 2 starter. Anyway, Baltimore had the third-worst walk rate as a team in the majors last year, at only 7.5%. Mountcastle, Hays, and Santander all had walk rates at 7.0% or lower, with Hays and Santander both checking in at a measly 5.3%. Pedro Severino’s 8.1% walk rate was one of the best marks among regulars, and he’s not with the team anymore. So three of the top five Baltimore hitters for today’s game have below average walk rates, and the No. 6 hitter is projected to be Rougned Odor. I’d say it’s a good matchup for Rasmussen today.
In Game 1 for the Rays and Orioles that went down yesterday, the Rays let starter Shane McClanahan work into the fifth inning. He finished with 4.1 innings pitched on 68 pitches, but he managed seven strikeouts against two walks. I think working into the fifth–and perhaps completing it–is your highest hope for Rasmussen today. His three Spring Training appearances were 2.0 innings, 3.0 innings, and 3.1 innings, with Rasmussen topping out at 54 pitches on April 3rd in his final appearance. That 70-pitch ceiling feels about right if the Rays handle him the same as they handled McClanahan. There’s also the fact that Rasmussen never worked deeper than five innings with Tampa last year. Some of that could be stretching him out, but some could be organizational philosophy. For reference, Tampa used a whopping seven pitchers yesterday.
That said, with so many pitchers struggling with the short ramp-up this year, I think Rasmussen still qualifies as a quality streamer and a strong SP2 play in MLB #DFS today. He’s cheaper than all but three arms on the green site today, as the seventh-most expensive hurler out of 10 possible arms at DraftKings. I’ll take all that strikeout upside for only 7K today.
What say you all? Can Rasmussen get to five innings and snag the win today? With Jordan Lyles opposing him and the Rays as heavy favorites, I think there’s a chance. I’m tempering my expectations for him to work super-deep into the game, though…
rotoranks 