I’d call this an overview of NFL DFS this week. I don’t just want to rattle off the “top three GPP plays of the week” because I think that’s goofy. No offense to anyone. But I’m trying to think more in terms of ownership. The truth is, even though I like Fitzpatrick this week, I’m not playing him in 100% of lineups. There are other guys I like, too (namely Watson). Anyway, let’s get into it. I’d love to talk DFS if anyone is bored–you can find me @HeathCapps or @roto_ranks in the Twitterverse.
Home Underdogs Abound (ranked by implied point totals)
(25.50) Matthew Stafford – Kenny Golladay – T.J. Hockenson – Marvin Jones
We know Alvin Kamara will be popular (40%?!) but how many out there are dying to play Lions? The Saints defense funnels targets inside, but it may do so less this week with Janoris Jenkins shelved. If Marshon Lattimore can slow down Kenny Golladay, maybe we’ll finally see a Marvin Jones game. If not, Hockenson is the guy. I like him over Jones anyway.
(24.50) Ryan Fitzpatrick – DeVante Parker – Mike Gesicki – Preston Williams – Myles Gaskin
The only downside to playing Fitzmagic is that you’ve got to slice this game up multiple ways. Or I suppose you could go naked Fitzymagic. Anyway, there’s a ton of hype surrounding this game. That’s another downfall. If you’re looking into Seattle, Chris Carson is slated to play, for what it’s worth. All that said, if ownership is somewhere around the 10-15% range…I think I’m happy. I’m all over Fitzmagic on DK, for better or for worse. He’s a paltry $5,400 on that site, and the QB24 if ranked by cost. On FanDuel you’ll have to do more soul searching, as he’s $7,100 and the QB14.
There are plenty of other home ‘dogs this week, but these are the two I’m most interested in. With Stafford priced at only $7,200 on FD as the QB12, I think it’s him on that site and Fitzmagic on DK. Let’s keep it simple today, eh? Of course, nothing is simple with Covid. So stay tuned to all NFL news outlets ahead of locking those lineups this week. The Saints had one player test positive last night, so it’s possible the Saints/Lions game is another one in jeopardy for Week 4.
Home Favorite Running Backs (ranked by implied point totals)
I’m not here to tell you to play Ezekiel Elliott, okay? Moving on…
(30.75) Darrell Henderson vs. New York Giants
Cam Akers is out again, but Malcolm Brown is still around to spell Henderson. The Rams are big favorites at home, -13.5 according to “Vegas.” Henderson is the RB14 on FanDuel, but the RB18 on DK. Henderson is a former third-round pick, so there’s some draft pedigree here. Injuries have held him down in recent years, but with health on his side and a hefty 6.2 Y/A on the ground so far, I’m all over him this week.
Aaaaaand as for home favorite running backs, that might do it (unless we are talking about Zeke). You can’t consider Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as we don’t even know if that game will be played this week. I’ve yet to see if the game will be removed from the main slate…if anyone has that news, please share!
Other Plays to Consider
Fancy heading, right? Here’s who I’m looking at today, by position…
At quarterback, I like Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, and Deshaun Watson on the high end. My lean is Watson. I like Matthew Stafford in the middle, and Ryan Fitzpatrick at the bottom.
At running back, it’s Kamara at the top, but he’ll likely be around 40% owned this week. It’s really hard for me to embrace that. I’m partial to Nick Chubb given that he’s B.A. and that Kareem Hunt is a bit hobbled this week. In the middle it’s Kenyan Drake, Darrell Henderson, and Mike Davis. I would be into Devin Singletary, but with Zack Moss expected back this week I think his upside is capped. I’m really into the middle tier with Drake-Henderson-Davis. Those are slam dunk plays to me. If you’re crazy you can consider Ronald Jones on the low end given the absence of Leonard Fournette–but you’ll have to make it on volume given the tough matchup. Not for the faint of heart is a guy like Gio Bernard. It makes sense that Bernard could see a little more volume than normal given Joe Mixon’s chest injury, and we’ve seen him pop before. But that’s a disgusting GPP play only.
At wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins is expected to play and is a nice correlation play with Mike Davis. Keenan Allen and Mike Evans should see boosts in volume given injuries to their receiving groups. Will Fuller V is back, and is the ever-popular stacking partner with Watson if you go that route. OBJ, D.J. Moore, and Jarvis Landry are my favorite guys in the middle. If I’m looking on the low end, it’s Hunter Renfrow at home against the Bills–that defense has funneled passes inside, and Waller wasn’t 100% healthy last week. Preston Williams is another name of note, but he’s about as low as I’m willing to go.
At tight end, Mark Andrews is the undisputed top dog with Kelce and the Chiefs looking questionable. Tyler Higbee doesn’t see enough volume to justify his price. Darren Waller, Mike Gesicki, T.J. Hockenson, and Hunter Henry are all guys I can talk myself into. I’m even into Evan Engram given that he’ll see volume, he’s only $4,400 on DK, and his matchup is better than it was last week. But my FAVORITE play this week (and a guy I’ll keep buying) is Logan Thomas. He’s seen a ton of volume and the Ravens funnel targets inside anyway. Add in that Terry McLaurin is already hobbled heading into the week, and I’m even more sold. I love him on DK for only $3,500. Lastly, if you’re going full YOLO you can check out Adam Trautman of the Saints. For only $2,500 on DK, it’s free to see if the rookie third-rounder can pop in a game without Michael Thomas or Jared Cook. I’ll take at least one shot on him.
At defense…do we really need to talk about defense? Ravens, Rams, and Bucs are the teams I’m most comfortable with. I can also talk myself into the Colts. If you’ve got a cheap and disgusting play that you love, share it with me!
That’s about it for me. I like getting into an overview. Now it’s time to keep mining the news. Who are YOU playing in your NFL DFS lineups this week?