I think most people would say that 2019 was kinder than 2020 has been. The quarterbacks in this group will most likely agree with you after the 2020 fantasy football season wraps up. Again, we’ll consider players based on fantasy points per game (FPTS/G) and only consider players who played at least eight games last year.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
2019 FPTS/G: #2
2019 Full Season Rank: #5
2020 ADP: QB #4
Since his first year out of Clemson, Watson has been a stud. 2020 will not be any different, but you don’t lose one of the best targets in the game and continue to produce at such a high rate. Because QB2 on a per-game basis is such a high spot, dropping a few spots won’t really change his potential impact.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
2019 FPTS/G: #4
2019 Full Season Rank: #22
2020 ADP: QB #15
Stafford’s injury-shortened season dampens his full season production, but he shined when he played in 2019. Stafford has been an underappreciated fantasy asset for years, ranking inside the top 15 in FPTS/G in four out of the past five years. He’s also been understaffed with surrounding talent, but he may have one of his strongest arsenals ever in 2020. However, I don’t buy him producing top 5 FPTS/G numbers in 2020.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2019 FPTS/G: #8
2019 Full Season Rank: #22
2020 ADP: QB #11
Brees spent part of 2019 injured, but he produced like a top 10 QB when he was healthy. Entering his age-41 season, I think you can count on Brees to provide low-end QB1 production. If you’re looking for a safe, high-floor option then he’s certainly on your list. However, I think he’ll be hard pressed to top the No. 8 finish on a per-game basis last season.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
2019 FPTS/G: #9
2019 Full Season Rank: #21
2020 ADP: QB #20
Tannehill burst on the scene and ignited the Titans’ magical run in 2019. The jury is still out on if this is a massive indictment of Marcus Mariota, the Miami Dolphins, or both. Regardless, Tannehill won’t produce as a top 10 QB in FPTS/G in 2020. I’d still buy him at his current ADP, but I wouldn’t expect him to finish in the top 10 over a full season.
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
2019 FPTS/G: #18
2019 Full Season Rank: #20
2020 ADP: QB #28
Living the past few years in Minshew’s hometown made his 2019 run a lot of fun to watch. Having said that, ranking 18th in FPTS/G won’t be duplicated in 2020. Being a middling QB2 is a huge accomplishment for a rookie drafted in the sixth round. Most of his stats from 2019 put him around the middle of the pack when you adjust on a per-game basis. It’s hard to see him sustaining that this upcoming season. I hope the magic continues, but he’ll probably make a better DFS play than full season option in most league formats.