Looking ahead to the start of the season, I wanted to find five quarterbacks who will beat their finish from last year. We’ll consider this based on each quarterback’s fantasy points per game (FPTS/G) for players who played at least eight games in 2019.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
2019 FPTS/G Rank: #10
2019 Full Season Rank: QB11
Current ADP: QB9
Matt Ryan was the QB2 in 2016 and 2018. However, he was QB25 in 2015 and the QB20 in 2017. His production has been a bit sporadic, but he’s only missed one start in the last decade, and his fantasy performance is tied directly to touchdowns. He has thrown 26, 35, 20, 38, and 21 over the past five seasons. He has also thrown for over 4,000 yards in each of those seasons, and eclipsed 4,400 yards in four of the past five. Bottom line, there is the potential he gets bogged down in the middle tier of startable quarterbacks–but I believe Matt Ryan has the tools and the weapons to finish inside the top 10 in points per game this season.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
2019 FPTS/G Rank: #13
2019 Full Season Rank: QB9
Current ADP: QB10
Wentz was QB13 on a per-game basis, but he didn’t have a single wide receiver tally more than 500 yards on the season. He has a dynamic tight end duo, Miles Sanders is a pass-catching machine, and between Jalen Reagor, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery someone will be healthy enough to see a productive workload. Wentz also has a knack for picking up yards on the ground when needed. Like Matt Ryan, I believe Wentz will be top 10 in FPTS/G this season. Wentz was the QB2 in FPTS/G in 2017. He has proven to be a capable starter in the past.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
2019 FPTS/G Rank: #14
2019 Full Season Rank: QB10
Current ADP: QB7
Don’t ask me what is happening in Green Bay. The whole thing stinks, but Rodgers and Davante Adams had an uncharacteristic season together last year–perhaps due to Adams battling injuries all year. Rodgers has been a staple in the top 10 over the past decade. Rodgers’ last appearance as the overall QB1 came in 2016. He finished as QB6 in 2018. 2019 is the exception, not the rule.
Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts
2019 FPTS/G Rank: #23
2019 Full Season Rank: QB15
Current ADP: QB21
Rivers will not be in consideration for a season long starting role in leagues that start only one quarterback, but he will provide streaming value and is a safe option for two-QB leagues. He’s also someone to consider as a backup if you take a gamble on an unproven or less reliable quarterback. Over the past five years, Rivers has ranged from QB12 to QB23, but his fantasy points per game has ranged from 16 to 18 points. Bottom line is, he’s consistent. Indianapolis provides a change of scenery and some new weapons for Rivers to try to regain his rightful place as a consistent high floor option.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
2019 FPTS/G Rank: #25
2019 Full Season Rank: QB19
Current ADP: QB12
The hype train ran his value through the roof in 2019. OBJ and Jarvis Landry have proven to be dynamic wide receivers. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt provide a chance at a great rushing game. Austin Hooper and David Njoku are capable tight ends. Look for a bounce-back following the disappointing season last year. I’d look for low-end QB1/high-end QB2 value.